Sunday, January 22, 2006

Divisional Championships and SB Update

Well, I guess I should have stuck with my pick at the beginning of the year. I had Carolina vs. Indy going to SB, but recently updated it to Chicago vs. Indy. I liked what I saw in Grossman coming in and Carolina was just playing with not much life. Well, Carolina picked up their play and will go to the SB. Seattle is playing decent, but nothing special as of late. The hot team wins this game in a close one Carolina 24-17.

In the AFC, hell I could flip a coin here and have a better shot to call this game correctly. Both times are playing very good football. Pitt is surprising the hell out of me. I thought they would get past Cincy, but gave them no shot against Indy. Still, I'm going to take the home team here and say Denver at home will shut down Pittsburgh's run game and make Big Ben do too much against Denver at home with noise and against Champ Bailey who earns his pay check. Denver will take this one...i think - 24 - 20

Sunday, January 08, 2006

SuperBowl Pick

I havent been posting here in awhile. Been busy, plus admittingly, I was getting crushed and didnt want to get out anymore bad advice for the few readers I have. Then I lost my username and pass after my computer didnt log me in automatically. Anyhow, I got Indy vs. Chicago in the SuperBowl. There is an outside chance it will be Indy vs. Carolina and would be happy with this too since I would look smarter with this since it was my pick at the onset of the year. But I like Chicago's chances a lot more now with that defense and with Rex Grossman in there. He has changed the whole dimension and attitude of the team. You can just tell the offensive players are more excited with him in there and feel they can score pts now. The defense will stay on course and will of course be the true winners for them, but now the offense can make things happen. I dont think I have to talk about Indy. They obviously have all the tools right now. Pitt will go down pretty easily against them. NE and Denver will be a helluva game and I really have no clue who will win there. But Indy should be able to win against any of those 2 pretty easily. Dont let Indy's recent play fool you one bit. I'm sure it will play mind games with a lot of people, but this team will play just like they did before SD I guarantee it.
That said, Indy will also handle the Bears handidly in the SuperBowl. A great Offense with a pretty good defense (indy) against a great defense and an average offense that does not have the poise of a SuperBowl team will lose. No doubt in my mind.

NFL Divisional Game LOCK!!!!!!

Seattle -9 against Wash is a joke. Seattle is going to crush them!!!!!! I thought it would open at -14 and be bet up to -17. It opens at -9 but will end at -13/-14....I cant see how after Wash played going to the west coast they will be in this ball game...I want to bet 500 kagillion dollars on this. This biggest bet i think i have ever had is $200 and i've done that once (i've bet $100 about 10x..but usually dont go for more than $50)...i'm not sure how much i will bet here, but sheesh, this is going to be a blowout worse than NE/Jags game...
If you bet it, bet as soon as you can cause you'll lose pts the longer u wait.

this one is as close to a lock as you get. I'll boil it down for u, if ur interested:
Seattle is good. Period. They have the most explosive offense the past 5 or so weeks of any team in the NFL. More so than Indy even before they lost the perfect season run. Why explosive...?
Cause they got Shaun Alexander who is the MVP this year. Running behind a O-line that is maybe the best in the NFL for run AND pass: See: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2006-01-05-bonus-playoff-grades_x.htm
They got Darrell Jackson back recently and he looks great. Their big WR threat. Not to mention all the guys who filled in for him while he was hurt. Their TE has been incredible lately too scoring in the past 3 or 4 games consecutively.
They are playing at home
They lost to Was in Week4 by 3 at Wash. They want this game.
Sea had a bye. Rested up, while Wash squeked out a win and got even more banged up than they already were (more to come on this)
Not only an away game for Wash, but the farthest away game they can have being in Sea.
Wash was hurt going into Tampa and are now more hurt. Defensive end may not play and Clinton Portis didnt play for most of the game due to injury. Ladell Betts didnt look good backing him up either.
Wash had 123 yds of offense!!!! The only reason they won is they got lucky with 2 big plays that were 2 defensive TDs. I dont see this happening in Seattle again. It was the bounce of the ball. Not skill (fumble returned for TD and a ball tipped at line for returned TD). Sure this could happen again, but the odds are not with Wash for it to happen 2 weeks in a row.
Everyone was big on Wash D holding TB to 10pts. But if you watched the game, TB drove every time they had the ball and either had the turn over or they finally stalled. It wasnt the D that did it, it was TB offense. This will not happen against Seattle's offense. They are too good.
Only positive for Wash is Seattle's Defense. its not that good and definitely not as good as TBs defense. So Wash should have more success than 123yds for sure. But everything above should BY FAR OUTWEIGH this factor.
i like this game A LOT.

Sunday, November 27, 2005

Week 12 Recap

Tier1 4-7 Overall Tier2 7-5, Overall 11-12.

What a sorry two weeks of picks. I'm not going to do any more in-depth analysis until I can get my record better. No one should be paying attention to me anyway at this point if I cant even be over 50%. I'll take Indy - 9 as a Tier 2 and NYJ/NO under 37 as a tier 1.

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Tier1 4-5 Overall Tier2 6-4, Overall 10-9.
Going to try to make it up this week. Last week was horrendous. Wanted to put Dallas in here as a Tier 1 yesterday, but ended up with a tie there so doesnt matter much. Here's to a better week.

Tier 1
Arizona +4 1/2 over Jacksonville
I chose this game for two reasons. The first being, I read some crazy stat from Vegas Insiders that a team coming off an away upset and coming home to being a dog by under 6 pts (and a bunch of other coincidental stuff) are winners 80% of the time. I could see the momentum carrying them again playing to a home crowd. The second reason is that Jacksonville (besides my team Balt...) dont blow teams out AND the Cards have been playing well recently. I look for them to pull an upset here as many different things point to them at least covering, if not winning outright.
Arizona 27 - 24 Jags (the over looks nice here too)

Oakland -7 over Miami
Miami is playing horrendous lately as seen last week getting blown out by the Browns...THE BROWNS! Oakland is playing very well recently pulling an upset on the road last week in Washington. Now Miami gets to travel to the west coast in a more hostile environment of Oakland and play a better football team. Why would they not win by more than 7? I certainly dont see any reason here...then again it is the National Fixed League.
Oakland 34 - 17 Miami

Tier 2
Minnesota - 4 over Clev (buy the 1/2 pt)
Minnesota has been playing rather well lately winning 3 in a row. Mostly their defense and special teams, but well none the less. Cle blew out Miami last week at home, but things will be a bit different this week playing away against a streaking team. Minn pulling off 2 consecutive road games will keep the momentum alive playing against a bad team at home.
Minn 27 - 16 Cle (i'll take the over too)

Tenn -8 over San Fran
Bad game of the week, but i like the way Tenn is playing. The usually can beat up on sorry teams pretty well (balt and houston) in their home environment (lost to cle @cle). San Fran is SanFran. Last week was a close game against Seattle, but this game is away and SanFran will be mentally drained.
Tenn 37 - 18 SanFran

Seattle -5 1/2 over NYG
Seattle did not blow out SanFran last week was pretty disappointing and cant really explain (didnt get to see any of the game). I like this game because the Giants have to travel to the west coast and have an inexperienced QB play a decent team in an opponents stadium. Not to mention the fact that Seattle is pretty damn good.
Sea 27 - 13 NYG

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Added Games Week 11

A couple more games.

Tier 1
Indy -6 over Cincy
There is nothing here telling me that Cincy is for real. Dont get me wrong, they are not a bad team, but every win is from a team that is at the bottom of the standings (except Chicago...and they aint that good either!). The only 2 losses they have are against Jacksonville and Pitt. 2 real teams. Indy is as real as they get. They should win this handidly.
Indy 34 - 17 Cincy

Tier 2
GB -4 over Minn
Both teams are bad. I'll give my allegiance to Brett Favre and a new running game. Home field hasnt meant much, but the past says GB will cover. The over looks pretty appealing too...
GB 34 - 17 Minn

Friday, November 18, 2005

Week 11 NFL Predictions

Overall Tier1 3-2 Overall Tier2 5-3, Overall 8-5.
Anyone else out there like the way Carolina is playing? They are crusing and I think a little under the radar because they started out slow. Since then, they are whooping up on the competition. So I'll start my prediction with them..

Tier 1
Carolina -3 over Chicago
This game should not be too close. The only scary part of this game is that it is in Chicago for the natural home field advantages any team gets, but then there is the weather factor that happened last week with SanFran (what a crazy game). Other than that, all indicators point to Carolina taking this one easily. Chicago has a great defense, but it wont be enough against TD machine Stephen Davis who finds ways to score every week and Steve Smith/Jake Delhomme connection. Carolina's D is just as good and will tear up Kyle Orton and whoever runs the ball. Look for Carolina to win like last week.
Carolina 24 - 10 Chicago

Seattle -13 1/2 over SanFran
Its a lot of points, but Seattle is another team cruising right now. It could be Seattle vs. Carolina in the NFC championship. Seattle's Alexander and then Maurice Morris in the 3rd or 4th quarter will tear up SanFrans run D. And if for some reason they don't, heck you got Hasselback and his core of WRs with Darrel Jackson back. San Fran wont do much against Seattle's D who albeit are only a bit above average. But hey, I gotta go against a team whose QB last week only had 1 completed pass in the entire game!!! I know it was windy as hell in Chicago, but that is pitiful. Wherre is Ryan Leaf when you need him...
Seattle 34 - 10

NE/NO over 45 1/2 San Fran

NE even w/out any weapons always seems to easily score more than 24 pts each game and I think they will do anywhere from 27 to 33. NO will score also against NE whose D is torn up. Brooks and Horn and Stallworth can get their fair share of long TDs and Antowain Smith is coming back to face his former team. He should be pumped up to have a decent game. Of course, NE will find a way to pull this one out as they always do, but man this could be an upset...of course I thought last week was going to be an upset against NE also which was damn close, but NE finds ways to win every freaking time. Its kinda sickening.
NE 30 - 24 NO

Tier 2
Denver -13 over NYJ
Again a lot of points, but in Denver against a bad run D does not equate to a close game for Denver's opponents. NYJ is ranked around 25th in run D giving up a lot of yards PLUS TDs. That should bode well for Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell who are running hard. Have any of you seen them? They run hard and punishing. They will wear the Jets down and easily get a win. NYJ offense with Bollinger OR Testeverde wont do much in Denver. This is not a tier1 cause I hate betting on Plummer, but he is at home and does a lot better at home than away (NEVER bet on Plummer away).
Denver 27 - 13 NYJ

Thats all for now. May have 1 or 2 more Tier 2's tomorrow. By the way Indy will work Cincy just as Pitt did a couple of weeks ago. That may be another Tier 2, but need to look at it a little closer.

Good Luck!

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Indy Colts Undefeated

I should have predicted this a long time ago because I thought this a long time ago even before the NE game and so on. Better get it down before the Cincy game. My pre-season Super Bowl pick was and of course still is Indianapolis Colts. Pains me to say being from Baltimore area, but they will win the Super Bowl this year. Not only that, but they will go undefeated. Scary thing is, they havent really started playing yet. Well they did in NE and thats how they can play every game against a good opponent. They have been running the ball and utilizing their defense. They have not been utilizing Peyton the WRs yet except in the NE game. They go undefeated and cruise to a Super Bowl win 44 - 17 over Carolina. This Super Bowl is going to suck.

Monday, November 07, 2005

TO/Jamal Lewis Analysis

Man oh man. These two guys are unbelievable. These guys could be the total cause of their team's dysmal year. In a team game, these 2 fellas have put themselves ahead of their team and have detroyed seasons literally.
TO
So the guy is not playing anymore. Good for Philly FINALLY pulling the plug on him. Should have been done a long while ago. Was it me or did Curtis Martin get his 100th TD this past weekend and fireworks didnt go flying as TO expected for his 100th. Yeah a little harder to do as a WR, but Martin has been a class act with his organization for his entire career! TO SINGLEHANDEDLY ended Philly's season by not playing and by causing a mess in the locker room. Not sure if fans realize how detrimental stuff like this can be to a team. Look at the Pats who have a great team all around, but am absolutely positive they win more than they should because of their cohesiveness. Philly may have had a shot if they never drafted TO to make the playoffs last year and this year. Albeit I'm not sure if they would have made it to the SB last year, but thats debatable. But at least Philly could have put more effort into finding their replacement. Maybe its a good thing being a fellow Ravens fan as they could have gotten Derrick Mason...

Jamal Lewis
Hasn't this guy done the same thing? I cant believe his comments of not playing to his full potential didnt get more national exposure. He said this in regards to not receiving a contract at the beginning of the year: ."I'm not the type that's going to lay down. At the same time, it's going to be in the back of your mind," Lewis said. "You want to go out and you want to play hard. [But] you want to be careful for your own health because this is the last year on my deal."
LOL, unreal. Could you imagine if he said this to a Mike Ditka coached team? Now, I dont exactly know what Baltimore's front office said, but this is just not said let alone acted upon. If there is any truth to this statement performance wise than Baltimore was doomed from the beginning of the year. And then there is the locker room factor. This had to be something discussed by players causing a rift between team players and 'screw the man' players. It just does not sit well and has to be a factor on how bad Balt is this year. They are not this bad of a team. Anyone with a little knowledge of their players can see that they should not be this pitiful.

Two teams down the drain because of players on each. I hope both players next year are not picked up by any team. This will never happen, but I guess in football terms, I hope they get paid $1M less than they would have.

MNF Game of the Year! NE vs. INdy

Big game. I'm always one for trends and of course NE has a huge trend factor going against them, but...
There are too many things going for Indy right now. There is no way, I could logically pick NE to win this one or cover the pts. There are psychologically reasons to pick NE, but I do not believe they outweigh the numbers. Everything points to Indy taking this one home. Lets take a look:
- Dwight Freeney playing against a rookie. He will have a field day pressuring/sacking Tom Brady all day long.
- NE will see this and run, run, run. They will not be successful with a gimpy Corey Dillon (unless it was a trick to make him look gimpy by Belichek which actually would be a brilliant move. Planning an injury to backup RB last week once it looked like the Bills had a chance to win and bring Dillon in after that...interesting..). In addition, Indy is giving up about 100yds on avg in a game (featured backs plus all other runs)
- Injuries in NE are too plentiful mostly in NE's secondary which has won them the games in the past. Ty Law not playing his a bigger key than people are realizing. This will be the biggest game factor.

Now I do want to point out a couple of items that do not make this a sure bet.
- Past factors. We all know about the success NE has had against Indy. Big psychological factor...but at the same time I pretty big motivating factor for Indy.
- Home-field and Ted Brushi. Two very inspiring items for NE to have on their side.
- Indy's opponents thus far. This is pretty big and something that is being overlooked by a lot of people. I have not seen any comments on this. Sure they are 7-0, but its a list of the worst of the NFL: Balt, SF, Hou, Cle, and Tenn (also Jags and St. Louis). This is the first real test, but Indy has also not had to use Peyton yet to win these games. A nice little weapon to have to up their play against a good team.
- Bye week. I only saw stats for last years coming off a bye week, but Indy had a jump in penalties and lost to the Jags last year off a bye. Could play a factor, but will keep it closer than for NE to be blown out.

Sure there are arguements for both sides, but the things going for Indy far outweight the negatives. I'm taking Indy here for a TIER 2

Indy 31 - 20 NE

Sunday, November 06, 2005

NFL Week 9

Late post, but I have nothing this week. I got a couple of $20 bets here and there, but this week is too weird with away teams all favored. I like the away teams to beat the spread, but this combo is always dangerous. Probably the 2 bets I like the most is the GB/Pitt over 37. It is discounted too much without Rothlisberger against a horrible GB team. And also taking Minn +2. Detroit is just as bad here, its in Minnesota, and hey maybe Culpepper getting hurt could be a good thing for Minn.

Good Luck

Monday, October 31, 2005

Week 8 NFL Wrapup

Overall Tier1 3-2 Overall Tier2 4-3, Overall 7-5. (i got a tie in there but i'm not including).
Well I of course liked my 2wins and as I posted earlier, I was right on the ball with Cincy/GB, but I guess that shizzle happens...
If I had to do it all over again, I would take out the Jags due to their inept offense and put a couple of those teaser picks up as Tier2's (specifically Chi and Oak/Tenn over which were won easily).
I actually ended up pretty big this week even though my biggest bet was on Cincy. I put a bunch of 2nd half bets down and put small bets on all of my teasers as straight bets. I also got a mistake line!! I have 4 different books. All of them except one were listing Car pickem +100 over Minn in 2nd half. One of them put up Minn +5 by mistake I believe because it quickly went down to +2. I bet $200 on 2 different sites and Carolina ended up winning the 2nd half by -1! Very lucky at that too! A 4th and goal TD by Minn and then a missed 2pt conversion. Either one (no td or a good 2pt conversion) and I tie. Pretty darn lucky! Makes up for the damn bungles...

MNF Ravens at Steelers

Ravens fan so I can bet against them...which i probably would...
$15 on Ravens ML to win $60 just for fun. I basically just threw my money out of my car window driving down the interstate.
Sux how bad they are and what is going on internally with that team. There is no hope left for their season now after Ed Reed and Ray Ray are out and not getting along well and with Jamal Lewis pissed off about not getting a new contract and not playing 100%. What a bunch of shit that is. Yeah I guess maybe it was a bad gesture by Baltimore's front office, but if i hear someone say 'can you blame him?', go f urself. His performance and i'm sure internal gripes has destroyed the team. The greedy fuck. I would bench him for the rest of the year or I would run him every play of the game so he gets hurt and gets shit. F him.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

GB/Cincy....

Man how frustrating. Everything went according to plan except for Cincy not being able to convert on the mistakes. Ridiculous....

Saturday, October 29, 2005

Week8 NFL

Overall Tier1 2-1 Overall Tier2 3-2, Overall 5-3. (i got a tie in there but i'm not including)

Tier1
Cincy -9 over GB

Love this game. Everything points to a Cincy blowout...i mean a big blowout. On Cincy's side they have a above avg team in every aspect and playing at home. Yah they got shellacked last week vs. Pitt, but that was against a good team. GB is in the top5 worst team in the league (in my opinion) AND they just got worse. They lost Ahman Green and their top WR (who is really #3 since they already lost #1 & #2) last week. Favre cannot do it all. This is what will happen. Cincy will get up a TD or 2 and Favre will throw away as seems to be the gameplan the entire 2000s for GB. But guess what folks? Cincy is in the top 10 in passing D and have the most INTs in the league!!! I think everyone has seen Favre either throws 5tds in a week or 5ints, well it will be the latter this week with rookie WRs and ballhawkers Deltha O'Neil and crew picking off Favre left and right. I see Favre getting picked off at least 4x.
The only thing that i dont like about this bet is Cincy beat Houston only by 6. They should have blown out Houston as they are the worst team in the league. Do they let up against bad teams...NAW. This will be a blow out.
Cincy 38 - 17 GB

Miami +2 1/2 over NO
What am I missing here? Miami is the better team hand hands down. Sure I guess you give -3 for home field, but I think this should move the spread to a pick'em at least if not -2 to Miami's side. Miami hasnt' been doing that well after their good start, but it was against pretty decent teams. While on the other side Deuce is hurt, Horn is hurt (even if he plays and upper thigh bruise usually is a limiting energy) and then Hakim who stepped up for Horn is nursing a rib injury. Who does that leave on their offense to win? Aaron Brooks, Stallworth, and Antowain Smith. I dont see those guys being able to pull it off against a good Miami D.
Miami's O is pretty lethargic, but NO has one of the worst D's in the league. Miami will score enough to not only cover the spread but win and control the game.
Miami 20 - 13 NO

Tier 2
Jags -3 over Rams (buy 1/2 point)

The Rams are missing Bulger, Holt and Bruce and their coach (which may make them better Martz blows). Jags are coming off a bye and have a helluva defense. Jags always play Indy tough at Indy meaning they can play against a Rams type of team and on TURF. Rams w/out their stars will lose this game by more than 3 and in the bigger issue of things will fall out of playoff contention for the rest of the year.
Jags 24 - 13 Rams

Different tier 2 here, try a teaser on SD pick vs. KC, Oak/Tenn over 40, and Chi +9 over Det.

I like all these bets without teasing, but not very strongly. I think teasing them all gives them a pretty solid chance of coming through. I like Chi to win outright even though the real spread is +3, i feel strongly that SD will win although it wouldnt be safe to say by more than 6 and I like the over of Oak/Tenn when you can get below the 43/44 pt threshold.

Good Luck All!

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Monday Night Wrap UP

Would have been nice with that under win. 41 such a weird number and yet Vegas was right on the money. Game went the way it should, although Atlanta scored more pts than I thought they would (and they got a Def TD called back...). Running plays got broken for huge yds on both sides of the ball. Knew that was possible, but didnt think there would be so many. Ah well, at least I ended the week on a positive note.

Monday, October 24, 2005

Week MNF Jets at Falcons

Actually have a pretty good betting situation for MNF. As I wrote earlier, I always bet on MNF and SNF because I get to watch them. I know this is not the way you are supposed to do it, but I bet for fun also and this gives me a little more enjoyment. I will however always give my grade on how sure I am
Tier2
Falcons/Jets under 41
I would love to have 43 here (or 44) and this would be a tier1 easily..for those that like teasers) given that 43,44,37 and 47 are the most hit for total scores. I like the under here for a number of reasons.
On the Jets side, their best bet is to run the ball. Atl's run D is not good and Curtis Martin is quielty have a pretty decent year. If they start to get behind they will have to throw and that will be bad, very bad for the Jets with ol' Vinny back there up against a real good Pass D in their home dome.
For Atlanta's side, they will run with warrick and run with vick and it should be pretty successful. They will pass with Vick who will do ok in that dept. But Atlanta doesnt have a team built to score a ton of points.
Atlanta 24 - 10 Jets

Tier 2
Atlanta -7 over Jets (buy the 1/2 pt)
I dont think you can argue much that Atlanta should win this game. They are the better team, in a better situation in all aspects, and at home. Only scary thing here is how inept Atl's Offense can be at times. But i'll give them the benefit of the doubt getting up and rocking at home on MNF. The Jets just really dont have much going for them...

Going to put a small parlay on these picks also.

Good Luck!

Week 7 NFL Results

I got....shellacked! Pretty embarrassing actually. 1-1 Tier1, 0-2 Tier2, Weekly Summary 1-3, Overall Tier1 2-1 Overal Tier2 2-2, Overall 4-3.

Indy -14 over Hou Well, my analysis for tier1 was pretty good. Indy scored about what I thought and got about as many sacks as I thought (5). It was surprising to see Houston score 20pts though. I did write after my Week6 wrapup though that Houston is learning to deal with the O-line deficiency in their play calling and they did so this week. Using quick passes and plays against over aggressive pursuers.

Minn/GB over was pretty much on, EXCEPT Culpepper didnt start playing until the 2nd half. He finished with almost 300yds and 2TDs. If he played just a bit in the 1st half a FG and more likely a TD would have been recorded making this a win. I stick with this pick and it comes through 7 out of 10 times.

Sea/Dallas over...not EVEN close. A combined 23 pts. As good of a coach he is, Parcells blew this game. Seattle's pass D is not that good to be afraid to do what their team does best and pass. Seattle played their normal game and I guess I underestimated Dallas's oncoming improving D. 23pts...sheesh.

Balt +1 over Chi Well Balt season is over and being a fan, so is mine. Thanks GAWD for fantasy football and betting or i would truly be depressed today. I really wouldnt have a reason to watch football anymore this season if all I had was my team. Jamal Lewis, NOT THE BALT QB, has dragged this team down to NOTHING. I expected him to come out like a caged tiger after his sentence, instead him came out like someones little bitch named Mona His O-line is good enough for him to do what he needs to do and he cant do it. And now its too late. Go ahead and start Chester Taylor, but we aint going anywhere. The D is fine even the QB thing is fine, but when you dont have a scary Run O, it makes that crappy Pass O that much weaker. I would love to hear suggestions on who I should root for this year now

The biggest surprise of the week I think came from the Washington Redskins. How the HECK did they score that many pts? I knew they would shut down SF offense (anyone knew that) and SF D isnt very good with all of their injuries, but damn...
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